|
|
|
题名
|
作者
|
年代
|
出处
|
被引量
|
| 1 | A Review of Climate Change Attribution Studies显示文摘This paper reviews recent progress in climate change attribution studies. The focus is on the attribution of observed long-term changes in surface temperature, precipitation, circulation, and extremes, as well as that of specific extreme weather and climate events. Based on new methods and better models and observations, the latest studies further verify the conclusions on climate change attribution in the IPCC AR5, and enrich the evidence for anthropogenic influences on weather and climate variables and extremes. The uncertainty of global temperature change attributable to anthropogenic forcings lies in the considerable uncertainty of estimated total radiative forcing due to aerosols, while the uncertainty of precipitation change attribution arises from the limitations of observation and model simulations along with influences from large internal variability. In terms of extreme weather and climate events, it is clear that attribution studies have provided important new insights into the changes in the intensity or frequency of some of these events caused by anthropogenic climate change. The framing of the research question, the methods selected, and the model and statistical methods used all have influences on the results and conclusions drawn in an event attribution study. Overall, attribution studies in China remain inadequate because of limited research focus and the complexity of the monsoon climate in East Asia. Attribution research in China has focused mainly on changes or events related to temperature, such as the attribution of changes in mean and extreme temperature and individual heat wave events. Some progress has also been made regarding the pattern of changes in precipitation and individual extreme rainfall events in China. Nonetheless, gaps remain with respect to the attribution of changes in extreme precipitation, circulation, and drought, as well as to the event attribution such as those related to drought and tropical cyclones. It can be expected that, with the continual development of climate models, ongoing improvements to data, and the introduction of new methods in the future, climate change attribution research will develop accordingly. Additionally, further improvement in climate change attribution will facilitate the development of operational attribution systems for extreme events, as well as attribution studies of climate change impacts. | Panmao ZHAI Baiquan ZHOU Yang CHEN | 2018 | Journal of Meteorological Research2018，32，5： | 12 |
| 2 | Re-Assessing Climatic Warming in China since 1900显示文摘The regional mean surface air temperature(SAT)in China has risen with a rate of 1.3–1.7℃(100 yr)^-1 since 1900,based on the recently developed homogenized observations.This estimate is larger than those[0.5–0.8℃(100 yr)^-1]adopted in the early National Reports of Climate Change in China.The present paper reviews the studies of the longterm SAT series of China,highlighting the homogenization of station observations as the key progress.The SAT series of China in early studies showed a prominent warm peak in the 1940s,mainly due to inhomogeneous records associated with site-moves of a number of stations from urban to outskirts in the early 1950s,thus leading to underestimates of the centennial warming trend.Parts of China were relatively warm around the 1940s but with differentphase interdecadal variations,while some parts were even relatively cool.This fact is supported by proxy data and could partly be explained by interdecadal changes in large-scale circulation.The effect of urbanization should have a minor contribution to the observed warming in China,although the estimates of such contributions for individual urban stations remain controversial.Further studies relevant to the present topic are discussed. | Zhongwei YAN Yihui DING Panmao ZHAI Lianchun SONG Lijuan CAO Zhen LI | 2020 | Journal of Meteorological Research2020，34，2： | 9 |
| 3 | Changes in Temporal Concentration Property of Summer Precipitation in China during 1961–2010 Based on a New Index显示文摘Based on the property of entropy,a new index Q was defined to measure the temporal concentration property of summertime daily rainfall in China,based on daily precipitation data collected at 553 observation stations in China during 1961–2010.Furthermore,changes in the temporal concentration property of summer precipitation in China were investigated.The results indicate that the regions with larger Q values were located in most parts of Northwest China and the north of the Yellow River,where daily precipitation tended to become temporally concentrated during the study period.On the contrary,smaller Q values were found in eastern Tibetan Plateau,southeastern Northwest China,and most parts of Southwest and South China.The most obvious increasing trend of Q index was found in South China and most parts of Southwest China,where precipitation showed a temporal concentration trend.However,a decreasing trend of Q index was found in Northwest China,the Tibetan Plateau,and the north of the Huaihe River.Variations of the Q index and the summer rainfall total during 1961–2010 in China both exhibited an increasing trend,implying larger temporal variability in rainfall attributes.It is illustrated that the summer precipitation in general became more temporally concentrated with more intense rainfall events and wetter days. | Hui LI Panmao ZHAI Er LU Wei ZHAO Yang CHEN Huan WANG | 2017 | Journal of Meteorological Research2017，31，2： | 9 |
| 4 | Performance of the CRA-40/Land,CMFD,and ERA-Interim Datasets in Reflecting Changes in Surface Air Temperature over the Tibetan Plateau显示文摘We analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in surface air temperature and key climate change indicators over the Tibetan Plateau during a common valid period from 1979 to 2018 to evaluate the performance of different datasets on various timescales.We used observations from 22 in-situ observation sites,the CRA-40/Land(CRA)reanalysis dataset,the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),and the ERA-Interim(ERA)reanalysis dataset.The three datasets are spatially consistent with the in-situ observations,but slightly underestimate the annual mean surface air temperature.The daily mean surface air temperature estimated by the CRA,CMFD,and ERA datasets is closer to the in-situ observations after correction for elevation.The CMFD shows the best performance in simulating the annual mean surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau,followed by the CRA and ERA datasets with comparable performances.The CMFD is relatively accurate in simulating the daily mean surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau on an annual scale,whereas both the CRA and ERA datasets perform better in summer than in winter.The increasing trends in the annual mean surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2018 reflected by the CRA dataset and the CMFD are 0.5℃(10 yr)^(-1),similar to the in-situ observations,whereas the warming rate in the ERA dataset is only 0.3℃(10 yr)^(-1).The trends in the length of the growing season derived from the in-situ observations,the CRA,CMFD,and ERA datasets are 5.3,4.8,6.1,and 3.2 day(10 yr)^(-1),respectively.Our analyses suggest that both the CRA dataset and the CMFD perform better than the ERA dataset in modeling the changes in surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau. | Jiaxi YANG Mengtian HUANG Panmao ZHAI | 2021 | Journal of Meteorological Research2021，35，4： | 9 |
| 5 | The Assessment of Global Surface Temperature Change from 1850s:The C-LSAT2.0 Ensemble and the CMST-Interim Datasets显示文摘Based on C-LSAT2.0,using high-and low-frequency components reconstruction methods,combined with observation constraint masking,a reconstructed C-LSAT2.0 with 756 ensemble members from the 1850s to 2018 has been developed.These ensemble versions have been merged with the ERSSTv5 ensemble dataset,and an upgraded version of the CMSTInterim dataset with 5°×5°resolution has been developed.The CMST-Interim dataset has significantly improved the coverage rate of global surface temperature data.After reconstruction,the data coverage before 1950 increased from 78%−81%of the original CMST to 81%−89%.The total coverage after 1955 reached about 93%,including more than 98%in the Northern Hemisphere and 81%−89%in the Southern Hemisphere.Through the reconstruction ensemble experiments with different parameters,a good basis is provided for more systematic uncertainty assessment of C-LSAT2.0 and CMSTInterim.In comparison with the original CMST,the global mean surface temperatures are estimated to be cooler in the second half of 19th century and warmer during the 21st century,which shows that the global warming trend is further amplified.The global warming trends are updated from 0.085±0.004℃(10 yr)^(–1)and 0.128±0.006℃(10 yr)^(–1)to 0.089±0.004℃(10 yr)^(–1)and 0.137±0.007℃(10 yr)^(–1),respectively,since the start and the second half of 20th century. | Wenbin SUN Qingxiang LI Boyin HUANG Jiayi CHENG Zhaoyang SONG Haiyan LI Wenjie DONG Panmao ZHAI Phil JONES | 2021 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2021，38，5： | 8 |
| 6 | Upper-Ocean Dynamical Features and Prediction of the Super El Nino in 2015/16:A Comparison with the Cases in 1982/83 and 1997/98显示文摘The 2015/16 super El Ni?o event has been widely recognized as comparable to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Ni?o events.This study examines the main features of upper-ocean dynamics in this new super event,contrasts them to those in the two historical super events,and quantitatively compares the major oceanic dynamical feedbacks based on a mixed-layer heat budget analysis of the tropical Pacific.During the early stage,this new event is characterized by an eastward propagation of SST anomalies and a weak warm-pool El Ni?o;whereas during its mature phase,it is characterized by a weak westward propagation and a westward-shifted SST anomaly center,mainly due to the strong easterly wind and cold upwelling anomalies in the far eastern Pacific,as well as the westward anomalies of equatorial zonal current and subsurface ocean temperature.The heat budget analysis shows that the thermocline feedback is the most crucial process inducing the SST anomaly growth and phase transition of all the super events,and particularly for this new event,the zonal advective feedback also exerts an important impact on the formation of the strong warming and westward-shifted pattern of SST anomalies.During this event,several westerly wind burst events occur,and oceanic Kelvin waves propagate eastwards before being maintained over eastern Pacific in the mature stage.Meanwhile,there is no evidence for westward propagation of the off-equatorial oceanic Rossby waves though the discharging process of equatorial heat during the development and mature stages.The second generation El Ni?o prediction system of the Beijing Climate Center produced reasonable event real-time operational prediction during 2014–16,wherein the statistical prediction model that considers the preceding oceanic precursors plays an important role in the multi-method ensemble prediction of this super. | Hong-Li REN Run WANG Panmao ZHAI Yihui DING Bo LU | 2017 | Journal of Meteorological Research2017，31，2： | 6 |
| 7 | Changes in Climate Regionalization Indices in China during 1961–2010显示文摘The regionalization of climate in China is based on a three-level classification in terms of lasting days for accumulated temperature(AT), aridity index, and July mean temperature. Based on daily meteorological observational data from 756 stations, trends and interdecadal variation in indices for classifying temperature zones, moisture regions and climatic subregions in the period 1961–2010 are discussed. Results reveal that the nationwide AT 10℃(AT10) and its lasting days are basically increasing, while aridity in northern Xinjiang is decreasing. The increasing trend of July mean temperature in North China is found to be notably larger than in South China. In terms of their national averages, a marked step increase of AT10 and its lasting period, as well as July mean temperature occurred around 1997, while the aridity index presents no such clear change. By comparing regionalization areas for 1998–2010 with those for 1961–97, it is found that the semi-humid, semi-dry and dry regions in the sub-temperate zone, as well as the humid region in the middle subtropical zone, have experienced substantial shrinkage in terms of area. In contrast, the areas of semi-dry and dry regions in the warm temperate zone, as well as the humid region in the south subtropical zone, present drastically increasing trends. Owing to the influence of such step changes that took place in 1997, that particular point in time should be given close attention in future studies regarding the regionalization of climate in China. | LIU Jing ZHAI Panmao | 2014 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2014，31，2： | 5 |
| 8 | Research on the Relationship of ENSO and the Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events in China显示文摘从 19512004 在中国基于 743 个车站的每日的降水观察数据集,分发函数被用来计算每日的降水的概率分发并且定义极端降水事件。基于这, ENSO 的关系和极端降水事件的频率被学习。结果表明 ENSO 事件在极端降水事件上有影响,与在不同区域和季节的不同大小。在冬季和春天期间,一般来说,极端降水事件更经常发生在 El Ni 期间 ? o 事件比在 La Ni 期间 ? 一事件。当时在夏天和秋天期间,反面被发现。二季节落后 ENSO 和极端降水频率的关系显示出不同模式。如果一个 ENSO 温暖的阶段发生在中央东方的热带太平洋,极端降水事件更经常发生在几个区域二个季节以前。El Ni 的没有类似的影响 ? o 和 La Ni ? 一上极端降水事件的频率被发现。引证李, W. , P。Zhai,和 J. 蔡, 2011:关于 ENSO 和在中国的极端降水事件的频率的关系的研究。副词。Clim。变化物件, 2 (2 ) , doi:10.3724/SP .J.1248.2011.00101。 | Wei Li Panmao Zhai Jinhui Cai | 2011 | Advances in Climate Change Research2011，2，2： | 4 |
| 9 | Geographical Tendencies of Trace Element Contents in Soils Derived from Granite,Basalt and Limestone of Eastern China显示文摘92 soil samples were collected from granite,basalt and limestone areas of eastern China and determined for 13 trace element contents.The geographical tendencies of and factors affecting trace element contents in soils were studied.The sequences of soil trace element contents (especially the transitional elements in the 4period) were:basalt soils> limestone soils> granite soils.The contents of trace elements in soils of granite areas and basalt areas showed great inheritance of trace element contents from the relevant parent rocks.The contents of trace elements in limestones were very low,but they became very high in limestone soils.Trace element contents of soils derived from limestone and basalt increased significantly from north to south,these tendencies were similar to the tendency of ferric oxide contents in soils.There were differences of contents of trace elements bound to ferric oxide in different kinds of parent material and in different types of soil.The correlations between the contents of trace elements and the contents of ferric oxide were better in basalt soils than in granite soils. | CHENJING-SHENG PANMAO 等 | 1993 | Pedosphere1993，3，1： | 4 |
| 10 | Changes of Climate Extremes in China显示文摘 | Panmao Zhai Anjian Sun Fumin Ren Xiaonin Liu Bo Gao Qiang Zhang | 1999 | Climatic Change1999，，1： | 3 |
| 11 | Changes of Climate Extremes in China显示文摘 | Panmao Zhai Anjian Sun Fumin Ren Xiaonin Liu Bo Gao Qiang Zhang | 1999 | Climatic Change1999，，1： | 3 |
| 12 | Detection and Attribution of Changes in Summer Compound Hot and Dry Events over Northeastern China with CMIP6 Models显示文摘Northeastern China has experienced a significant increase in summer compound hot and dry events(CHDEs),posing a threat to local agricultural production and sustainable development.This study investigates the detectable anthropogenic signal in the long-term trend of CHDE and quantifies the contribution of different external forcings.A probability-based index(PI)is constructed through the joint probability distribution to measure the severity of CHDE,with lower values representing more severe cases.Response of CHDE to external forcing was assessed with simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).The results show a significant increase in the severity of CHDE over northeastern China during the past decades.The trend of regional averaged PI is-0.28(90%confidence interval:-0.43 to-0.13)per 54 yr and it is well reproduced in the historical forcing simulations.The attribution method of optimal fingerprinting was firstly applied to a two-signal configuration with anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing;the anthropogenic impact was robustly detected and it explains most of the observed trend of PI.Similarly,three-signal analysis further demonstrated that the anthropogenic greenhouse gases dominantly contribute to the observed change,while the anthropogenic aerosol and natural forcing have almost no contribution to the observed changes.For a compound event concurrently exceeding the 95 th percentile of surface air temperature and precipitation reversal in the current period,its likelihood exhibits little change at 1.5℃global warming,but almost doubled at 2.0℃global warming. | Wei LI Zhihong JIANG Laurent ZXLI Jing-Jia LUO Panmao ZHAI | 2022 | Journal of Meteorological Research2022，36，1： | 3 |
| 13 | Changes in Summer Persistent Precipitation over the Middle–Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River and Associated Atmospheric Circulation Patterns显示文摘Persistence is an important property of precipitation and its related impacts. However, changes in persistent precipitation and the possible underlying mechanisms in the context of global warming have not yet been discussed in sufficient depth. In this study, the changes in persistent precipitation in summer and related atmospheric circulation patterns over the middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYZR)—a typical monsoon region frequently hit by consecutive rainfall events—are analyzed based on observed daily precipitation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2019. The results reveal that persistent precipitation events(PPs) tend to happen in a more persistent way, with increased frequency and intensity in the MLRYZR region. Mechanism analyses show that persistent precipitation has happened along with simultaneous enhancement of some large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns,including the Lake Baikal blocking(BB), the Okhotsk Sea blocking(OB), and the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH). Such enhanced anomalous circulation patterns could persistently reinforce the convergence and supply of water vapor in the MLRYZR region, contributing to the increase in PPs in this region. Based on the above results, we are able to offer some new insights into the long-term changes in precipitation structure and the possible causes. This study is also expected to support attribution studies on regional precipitation changes in the future. | Rong YU Panmao ZHAI | 2021 | Journal of Meteorological Research2021，35，3： | 2 |
| 14 | An Assessment of the Predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Based on TIGGE Data显示文摘The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA. | ZHOU Baiquan NIU Ruoyun ZHAI Panmao | 2015 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2015，32，3： | 2 |
| 15 | Understanding human influence on climate change in China显示文摘China’s climate has been warming since the 1950s, with surface air temperature increasing at a rate higher than the global average. Changes in climate have exerted substantial impacts on water resources,agriculture, ecosystems and human health. Attributing past changes to causes provides a scientific foundation for national and international climate policies. Here, we review recent progress in attributing the observed climate changes over past decades in China. Anthropogenic forcings, dominated by greenhouse gas emissions, are the main drivers for observed increases in mean and extreme temperatures. Evidence of the effect of anthropogenic forcings on precipitation is emerging. Human influence has increased the probability of extreme heat events, and has likely changed the occurrence probabilities for some heavy precipitation events. The way a specific attribution question is posed and the conditions under which the question is addressed present persistent challenges for appropriately communicating attribution results to non-specialists. | Ying Sun Xuebin Zhang Yihui Ding Deliang Chen Dahe Qin Panmao Zhai | 2022 | National Science Review2022，9，3： | 2 |
| 16 | Changes of Climate Extremes in China 显示文摘 | Panmao Zhai Anjing Sun Funmin Ren | 1999 | Climatic Change1999，42，： | 1 |
| 17 | Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China 显示文摘 | Zhai Panmao Zhang Xuebin Wan Hui | 2005 | Journal of Climate2005，，4： | 1 |
| 18 | Changes of Climate Extremes in China显示文摘 | Panmao Zhai Anjian Sun Fumin Ren Xiaonin Liu Bo Gao Qiang Zhang | 1999 | Climatic Change1999，，1： | 1 |
| 19 | Atmospheric water vapor overChina 显示文摘 | Zhai Panmao Robert E Eskridge | 1997 | J Clim1997，10，： | 1 |
| 20 | Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China 显示文摘 | Zhai Panmao Zhang Xuebin Hui Wan | 2005 | Journal of Climate2005，18，7： | 1 |
您所在的机构暂未开通此部分的功能，请联系管理员