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您的检索式：作者名="Angela Peace"
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| 1 | Effects of environmental variability on superspreading transmission events in stochastic epidemic models显示文摘Superspreaders(individuals with a high propensity for disease spread)have played a pivotal role in recent emerging and re-emerging diseases.In disease outbreak studies,host heterogeneity based on demographic(e.g.age,sex,vaccination status)and environmental(e.g.climate,urban/rural residence,clinics)factors are critical for the spread of infectious diseases,such as Ebola and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome(MERS).Transmission rates can vary as demographic and environmental factors are altered naturally or due to modified behaviors in response to the implementation of public health strategies.In this work,we develop stochastic models to explore the effects of demographic and environmental variability on human-to-human disease transmission rates among superspreaders in the case of Ebola and MERS.We show that the addition of environmental variability results in reduced probability of outbreak occurrence,however the severity of outbreaks that do occur increases.These observations have implications for public health strategies that aim to control environmental variables. | Nika Shakiba Christina J.Edholm Blessing O.Emerenini Anarina L.Murillo Angela Peace Omar Saucedo Xueying Wang Linda J.S.Allen | 2021 | Infectious Disease Modelling2021，6，1： | 0 |
| 2 | Incorporating the mutational landscape of SARS-COV-2 variants and case-dependent vaccination rates into epidemic models显示文摘Coronavirus Disease(COVID-19),which began as a small outbreak in Wuhan,China,in December 2019,became a global pandemic within months due to its high transmissibility.In the absence of pharmaceutical treatment,various non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs)to contain the spread of COVID-19 brought the entire world to a halt.After almost a year of seemingly returning to normalcy with the world's quickest vaccine development,the emergence of more infectious and vaccine resistant coronavirus variants is bringing the situation back to where it was a year ago.In the light of this new situation,we conducted a study to portray the possible scenarios based on the three key factors:impact of interventions(pharmaceutical and NPIs),vaccination rate,and vaccine efficacy.In our study,we assessed two of the most crucial factors,transmissibility and vaccination rate,in order to reduce the spreading of COVID-19 in a simple but effective manner.In order to incorporate the time-varying mutational landscape of COVID-19 variants,we estimated a weighted transmissibility composed of the proportion of existing strains that naturally vary over time.Additionally,we consider time varying vaccination rates based on the number of daily new cases.Our method for calculating the vaccination rate from past active cases is an effective approach in forecasting probable future scenarios as it actively tracks people's attitudes toward immunization as active case changes.Our simulations show that if a large number of individuals cannot be vaccinated by ensuring high efficacy in a short period of time,adopting NPIs is the best approach to manage disease transmission with the emergence of new vaccine breakthrough and more infectious variants. | Mohammad Mihrab Chowdhury Md Rafiul Islam Md Sakhawat Hossain Nusrat Tabassum Angela Peace | 2022 | Infectious Disease Modelling2022，7，2： | 0 |
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